Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 24 Oct 2026, 20:35 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792774549611-2164042

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792774549611-2164042
Published 2026-10-23 18:55:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,633.8200
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
64.67%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-23 19:12:00
Market price 81,718.2900.
Actual Market Range
81,403.0000 → 81,748.8700
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792774549611-2164042.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,743.8000 → 81,743.8500 48.00% 2026-10-23 18:55:35
→ 2026-10-23 19:25:35 		touched 2026-10-23 19:19:00
@ 81,743.8000
60 min 81,718.2900 → 81,718.3900 65.00% 2026-10-23 18:55:35
→ 2026-10-23 19:55:35 		touched 2026-10-23 19:12:00
@ 81,718.2900
90 min 81,706.2700 → 81,706.4000 81.00% 2026-10-23 18:55:35
→ 2026-10-23 20:25:35 		touched 2026-10-23 19:12:00
@ 81,706.2700
Historical context at publication time 71.54% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 83,532 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.74% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-23 18:55:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
73.54%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 9,715 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
82.86%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
9,715
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.40% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 32 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-24 14:35:00 → 2026-10-24 20:35:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,244 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.41%
Published TouchRate 59.89%
Qualified Hit 84.10%
Published TouchRate 83.43%
60 min 3,243 evaluated
Forecast Hit 74.65%
Published TouchRate 69.99%
Qualified Hit 83.09%
Published TouchRate 84.09%
90 min 3,228 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.56%
Published TouchRate 75.34%
Qualified Hit 82.00%
Published TouchRate 85.68%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792866350748-2564225
2026-10-24 20:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,205.9700 → 80,206.0200 96.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:26:00
@ 80,205.9700
1792866350748-2564225
2026-10-24 20:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,223.2300 → 80,223.3200 95.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:26:00
@ 80,223.2300
1792866350748-2564225
2026-10-24 20:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,236.7400 → 80,236.8700 96.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:26:00
@ 80,236.7400
1792866170791-2563449
2026-10-24 20:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,237.6400 → 80,237.6900 90.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:26:00
@ 80,237.6400
1792866170791-2563449
2026-10-24 20:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,268.5900 → 80,268.6900 90.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:27:00
@ 80,268.5900
1792866170791-2563449
2026-10-24 20:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,273.1000 → 80,273.2300 94.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:27:00
@ 80,273.1000
1792865991688-2562671
2026-10-24 20:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,306.0200 → 80,306.0700 79.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:30:00
@ 80,306.0200
1792865270503-2559556
2026-10-24 20:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,255.9900 → 80,256.0400 70.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,255.9900
1792865270503-2559556
2026-10-24 20:07:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,201.5300 → 80,201.6300 95.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,201.5300
1792865090395-2558799
2026-10-24 20:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,213.5100 → 80,213.5600 82.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,213.5100
1792865090395-2558799
2026-10-24 20:04:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,178.2800 → 80,178.3800 97.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:04:00
@ 80,178.2800
1792864909820-2558025
2026-10-24 20:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,242.2000 → 80,242.2500 77.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,242.2000
1792864909820-2558025
2026-10-24 20:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,243.4100 → 80,243.5100 88.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,243.4100
1792864729373-2557202
2026-10-24 19:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,203.3200 → 80,203.3700 88.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,203.3200
1792864729373-2557202
2026-10-24 19:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,190.4600 → 80,190.5600 96.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:09:00
@ 80,190.4600
1792864549542-2556409
2026-10-24 19:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,188.5900 → 80,188.6400 93.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:09:00
@ 80,188.5900
1792864549542-2556409
2026-10-24 19:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,209.7700 → 80,209.8700 93.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,209.7700
1792864370557-2555629
2026-10-24 19:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,198.8300 → 80,198.8800 87.00% touched 2026-10-24 20:10:00
@ 80,198.8300

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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