Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 05 Nov 2026, 12:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1793787772774-2273189

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1793787772774-2273189
Published 2026-11-04 11:22:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 78,438.9400
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
83.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-04 11:24:00
Market price 78,480.2400.
Actual Market Range
78,396.4800 → 78,622.3900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1793787772774-2273189.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 78,480.2400 → 78,480.2900 82.00% 2026-11-04 11:22:36
→ 2026-11-04 11:52:36 		touched 2026-11-04 11:24:00
@ 78,480.2400
60 min 78,571.4400 → 78,571.5300 72.00% 2026-11-04 11:22:36
→ 2026-11-04 12:22:36 		touched 2026-11-04 11:34:00
@ 78,571.4400
90 min 78,475.7700 → 78,475.9000 95.00% 2026-11-04 11:22:36
→ 2026-11-04 12:52:36 		touched 2026-11-04 11:24:00
@ 78,475.7700
Historical context at publication time 71.71% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 100,344 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.67% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-04 11:22:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
74.61%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 10,002 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
84.17%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
10,002
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.08% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 27 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-05 06:48:00 → 2026-11-05 12:48:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,339 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.13%
Published TouchRate 60.29%
Qualified Hit 83.98%
Published TouchRate 82.61%
60 min 3,329 evaluated
Forecast Hit 73.72%
Published TouchRate 70.88%
Qualified Hit 83.91%
Published TouchRate 83.80%
90 min 3,334 evaluated
Forecast Hit 78.97%
Published TouchRate 76.09%
Qualified Hit 84.50%
Published TouchRate 84.65%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1793879031114-2687089
2026-11-05 12:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,279.4000 → 80,279.4500 78.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:45:00
@ 80,279.4000
1793879031114-2687089
2026-11-05 12:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,245.2600 → 80,245.3500 96.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:43:00
@ 80,245.3500
1793878851860-2686304
2026-11-05 12:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,263.6700 → 80,263.7700 50.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:40:00
@ 80,263.7200
1793878851860-2686304
2026-11-05 12:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,237.3400 → 80,237.4600 85.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:40:00
@ 80,237.4600
1793878671688-2685525
2026-11-05 12:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,282.7400 → 80,282.7900 66.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:41:00
@ 80,282.7400
1793878491581-2684729
2026-11-05 12:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,240.7500 → 80,240.8400 88.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:34:00
@ 80,240.8400
1793878491581-2684729
2026-11-05 12:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,250.4600 → 80,250.5900 92.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:34:00
@ 80,250.5900
1793878312474-2683947
2026-11-05 12:31:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,192.5800 → 80,192.6200 95.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:31:00
@ 80,192.6200
1793878131952-2683154
2026-11-05 12:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,192.0100 → 80,192.0500 50.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:28:00
@ 80,192.0300
1793877951818-2682385
2026-11-05 12:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,208.4700 → 80,208.6000 77.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:27:00
@ 80,208.6000
1793877772107-2681603
2026-11-05 12:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,197.9500 → 80,197.9900 78.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:27:00
@ 80,197.9900
1793877772107-2681603
2026-11-05 12:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,179.7700 → 80,179.9000 76.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:29:00
@ 80,179.9000
1793877591259-2680786
2026-11-05 12:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,225.7700 → 80,225.8200 91.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:19:00
@ 80,225.8200
1793877591259-2680786
2026-11-05 12:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,209.4800 → 80,209.6100 86.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:22:00
@ 80,209.6100
1793877412921-2679993
2026-11-05 12:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,203.5900 → 80,203.6400 93.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:17:00
@ 80,203.6400
1793877412921-2679993
2026-11-05 12:16:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,196.2700 → 80,196.4000 92.00% touched 2026-11-05 12:18:00
@ 80,196.4000
1793877231947-2679224
2026-11-05 12:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,163.3200 → 80,163.3700 72.00% not touched —
1793877050619-2678403
2026-11-05 12:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,132.0400 → 80,132.1000 61.00% not touched —

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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