Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
Analytics powered by Galaksija Engine
Statistics period: 7D Last calculated: 08 Nov 2026, 15:00 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1794145252869-4139815

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1794145252869-4139815
Published 2026-11-08 14:40:36
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 75,864.8400
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
2 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
56.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-11-08 14:40:00
Market price 75,864.8400.
Actual Market Range
75,778.0400 → 75,869.6500
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1794145252869-4139815.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 75,823.9500 → 75,824.0000 35.00% 2026-11-08 14:40:36
→ 2026-11-08 15:10:36 		touched 2026-11-08 14:41:00
@ 75,824.0000
60 min 75,877.8500 → 75,877.9500 84.00% 2026-11-08 14:40:36
→ 2026-11-08 15:40:36 		pending —
90 min 75,864.7800 → 75,864.9000 50.00% 2026-11-08 14:40:36
→ 2026-11-08 16:10:36 		touched 2026-11-08 14:40:00
@ 75,864.8400
Historical context at publication time 71.71% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 106,287 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.69% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-11-08 14:40:36 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
72.34%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 10,030 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
83.37%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
10,030
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
3m 25
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.19% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 23 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-11-08 09:03:00 → 2026-11-08 15:03:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 3,344 evaluated
Forecast Hit 68.90%
Published TouchRate 59.24%
Qualified Hit 83.12%
Published TouchRate 82.94%
60 min 3,341 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.06%
Published TouchRate 69.82%
Qualified Hit 82.14%
Published TouchRate 84.68%
90 min 3,345 evaluated
Forecast Hit 77.07%
Published TouchRate 75.51%
Qualified Hit 84.47%
Published TouchRate 85.29%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1794146513119-4148116
2026-11-08 15:01:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,812.9300 → 75,813.0600 86.00% touched 2026-11-08 15:01:00
@ 75,813.0600
1794146332436-4146904
2026-11-08 14:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,815.9100 → 75,816.0100 81.00% touched 2026-11-08 15:00:00
@ 75,816.0100
1794146332436-4146904
2026-11-08 14:58:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,814.8900 → 75,815.0200 84.00% touched 2026-11-08 15:00:00
@ 75,815.0200
1794145972382-4144558
2026-11-08 14:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,802.9900 → 75,803.0900 81.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:53:00
@ 75,803.0900
1794145972382-4144558
2026-11-08 14:52:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,805.1100 → 75,805.2300 87.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:53:00
@ 75,805.2300
1794145793078-4143331
2026-11-08 14:49:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,835.0900 → 75,835.1900 50.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:49:00
@ 75,835.1400
1794145793078-4143331
2026-11-08 14:49:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,835.0800 → 75,835.2000 50.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:49:00
@ 75,835.1400
1794145613216-4142163
2026-11-08 14:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,858.3700 → 75,858.4700 92.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:46:00
@ 75,858.3700
1794145613216-4142163
2026-11-08 14:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,846.2500 → 75,846.3800 95.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:46:00
@ 75,846.3800
1794145431563-4140988
2026-11-08 14:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,822.5300 → 75,822.6300 50.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:43:00
@ 75,822.5800
1794145431563-4140988
2026-11-08 14:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,813.9600 → 75,814.0900 92.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:44:00
@ 75,814.0900
1794145252869-4139815
2026-11-08 14:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 75,823.9500 → 75,824.0000 35.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:41:00
@ 75,824.0000
1794145252869-4139815
2026-11-08 14:40:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,864.7800 → 75,864.9000 50.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:40:00
@ 75,864.8400
1794145072474-4138608
2026-11-08 14:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 75,865.5100 → 75,865.5600 64.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:37:00
@ 75,865.5600
1794145072474-4138608
2026-11-08 14:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,896.3000 → 75,896.4000 87.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:39:00
@ 75,896.3000
1794145072474-4138608
2026-11-08 14:37:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 75,885.5400 → 75,885.6600 50.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:37:00
@ 75,885.6000
1794144892100-4137368
2026-11-08 14:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 75,947.1000 → 75,947.1500 61.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:35:00
@ 75,947.1000
1794144892100-4137368
2026-11-08 14:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 75,950.0700 → 75,950.1600 70.00% touched 2026-11-08 14:35:00
@ 75,950.0700

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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