Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: ALL TIME Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 11:05 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790929548226-204141

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790929548226-204141
Published 2026-10-02 10:25:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,346.4400
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
1 touched of 1 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
79.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-02 10:37:00
Market price 86,456.4200.
Actual Market Range
86,122.9600 → 86,469.0400
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790929548226-204141.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,456.4200 → 86,456.4600 69.00% 2026-10-02 10:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 10:55:35 		touched 2026-10-02 10:37:00
@ 86,456.4200
60 min 86,493.3900 → 86,493.4900 81.00% 2026-10-02 10:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 11:25:35 		pending —
90 min 86,487.1500 → 86,487.2800 88.00% 2026-10-02 10:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 11:55:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 70.69% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,547 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.02% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 10:25:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
70.70%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 53,559 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.59%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
53,559
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.03% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 39 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 05:05:00 → 2026-10-02 11:05:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 17,862 evaluated
Forecast Hit 66.01%
Published TouchRate 60.76%
Qualified Hit 81.86%
Published TouchRate 82.94%
60 min 17,851 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.77%
Published TouchRate 70.98%
Qualified Hit 80.17%
Published TouchRate 84.06%
90 min 17,846 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.31%
Published TouchRate 75.34%
Qualified Hit 82.63%
Published TouchRate 85.55%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790931527878-210100
2026-10-02 10:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,157.3500 → 86,157.4000 76.00% touched 2026-10-02 11:03:00
@ 86,157.4000
1790931347766-209556
2026-10-02 10:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,283.0100 → 86,283.0600 92.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:55:00
@ 86,283.0600
1790931167840-209014
2026-10-02 10:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,210.2100 → 86,210.2600 78.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:59:00
@ 86,210.2600
1790930988076-208473
2026-10-02 10:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,185.0500 → 86,185.1000 68.00% touched 2026-10-02 11:02:00
@ 86,185.1000
1790930808344-207960
2026-10-02 10:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,246.1400 → 86,246.1900 79.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:53:00
@ 86,246.1900
1790930267586-206321
2026-10-02 10:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,443.5600 → 86,443.6100 82.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:37:00
@ 86,443.5600
1790930088100-205765
2026-10-02 10:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,304.2800 → 86,304.7200 97.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:34:00
@ 86,304.2800
1790930088100-205765
2026-10-02 10:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,442.1000 → 86,442.2000 81.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:37:00
@ 86,442.1000
1790930088100-205765
2026-10-02 10:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,440.6800 → 86,440.8100 87.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:37:00
@ 86,440.6800
1790929907991-205229
2026-10-02 10:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,496.0100 → 86,496.0700 69.00% not touched —
1790929727895-204675
2026-10-02 10:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,486.2000 → 86,486.2600 69.00% not touched —
1790929548226-204141
2026-10-02 10:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,456.4200 → 86,456.4600 69.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:37:00
@ 86,456.4200
1790929367733-203590
2026-10-02 10:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,524.1700 → 86,524.2300 69.00% not touched —
1790929188315-203042
2026-10-02 10:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,582.8800 → 86,582.9200 69.00% not touched —
1790929008164-202485
2026-10-02 10:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,554.2100 → 86,554.2700 68.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:17:00
@ 86,554.2100
1790929008164-202485
2026-10-02 10:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,591.1900 → 86,591.2900 81.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:17:00
@ 86,591.1900
1790928827702-201968
2026-10-02 10:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,405.1200 → 86,405.1700 68.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:16:00
@ 86,405.1200
1790928827702-201968
2026-10-02 10:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,442.1000 → 86,442.2000 81.00% touched 2026-10-02 10:16:00
@ 86,442.1000

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 4,136 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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