Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: ALL TIME Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 12:50 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790936388287-225433

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790936388287-225433
Published 2026-10-02 12:19:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 86,341.1800
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
88.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-02 12:20:00
Market price 86,360.3200.
Actual Market Range
86,158.0000 → 86,496.0100
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790936388287-225433.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 86,314.8700 → 86,314.9200 88.00% 2026-10-02 12:19:35
→ 2026-10-02 12:49:35 		touched 2026-10-02 12:22:00
@ 86,314.9200
60 min 86,427.7000 → 86,427.7900 79.00% 2026-10-02 12:19:35
→ 2026-10-02 13:19:35 		touched 2026-10-02 12:34:00
@ 86,427.7000
90 min 86,360.3200 → 86,360.4500 97.00% 2026-10-02 12:19:35
→ 2026-10-02 13:49:35 		touched 2026-10-02 12:20:00
@ 86,360.3200
Historical context at publication time 70.66% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 53,668 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.06% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 12:19:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
70.67%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 53,688 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.52%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
53,688
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.06% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 12 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 06:50:00 → 2026-10-02 12:50:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 17,898 evaluated
Forecast Hit 65.99%
Published TouchRate 60.80%
Qualified Hit 81.82%
Published TouchRate 82.95%
60 min 17,895 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.74%
Published TouchRate 71.02%
Qualified Hit 80.07%
Published TouchRate 84.07%
90 min 17,895 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.28%
Published TouchRate 75.38%
Qualified Hit 82.56%
Published TouchRate 85.56%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790938008118-231329
2026-10-02 12:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,385.3900 → 86,385.4500 50.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:46:00
@ 86,385.4200
1790937648479-230109
2026-10-02 12:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,395.1100 → 86,395.1600 97.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:40:00
@ 86,395.1100
1790937648479-230109
2026-10-02 12:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,388.4200 → 86,388.5200 50.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:40:00
@ 86,388.4700
1790937648479-230109
2026-10-02 12:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,464.8300 → 86,464.9600 85.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:42:00
@ 86,464.8300
1790937469239-229392
2026-10-02 12:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,397.7600 → 86,397.8200 96.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:37:00
@ 86,397.8200
1790937469239-229392
2026-10-02 12:37:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,452.0300 → 86,452.1300 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:42:00
@ 86,452.0300
1790937288639-228783
2026-10-02 12:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,459.9500 → 86,460.0000 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:35:00
@ 86,459.9500
1790937288639-228783
2026-10-02 12:34:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,480.5300 → 86,480.6300 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:35:00
@ 86,480.5300
1790937108650-228136
2026-10-02 12:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,340.1700 → 86,340.2200 93.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:32:00
@ 86,340.2200
1790937108650-228136
2026-10-02 12:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,411.8500 → 86,411.9500 86.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:34:00
@ 86,411.8500
1790937108650-228136
2026-10-02 12:31:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,425.6200 → 86,425.7500 86.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:34:00
@ 86,425.6200
1790936927952-227434
2026-10-02 12:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,350.3000 → 86,350.3500 94.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:28:00
@ 86,350.3500
1790936927952-227434
2026-10-02 12:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,418.0800 → 86,418.2100 90.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:34:00
@ 86,418.0800
1790936750079-226805
2026-10-02 12:25:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,203.6200 → 86,203.7100 94.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:25:00
@ 86,203.6200
1790936568031-226063
2026-10-02 12:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,299.4900 → 86,299.5400 83.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:22:00
@ 86,299.5400
1790936568031-226063
2026-10-02 12:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 86,414.4100 → 86,414.5100 80.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:34:00
@ 86,414.4100
1790936568031-226063
2026-10-02 12:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 86,354.4000 → 86,354.5300 96.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:28:00
@ 86,354.4000
1790936388287-225433
2026-10-02 12:19:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 86,314.8700 → 86,314.9200 88.00% touched 2026-10-02 12:22:00
@ 86,314.9200

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 4,136 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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