Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: ALL TIME Last calculated: 02 Oct 2026, 23:35 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1790972749679-378802

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1790972749679-378802
Published 2026-10-02 22:25:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 84,517.9600
Run Hit Rate
0.00%
0 touched of 2 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
70.33%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
—
One or more horizons are still pending.
Actual Market Range
84,200.0000 → 84,538.9900
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1790972749679-378802.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 84,627.9300 → 84,627.9900 59.00% 2026-10-02 22:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 22:55:35 		not touched —
60 min 84,664.9100 → 84,665.0100 72.00% 2026-10-02 22:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 23:25:35 		not touched —
90 min 84,687.0200 → 84,687.1500 80.00% 2026-10-02 22:25:35
→ 2026-10-02 23:55:35 		pending —
Historical context at publication time 70.82% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 54,276 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 69.09% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-02 22:25:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
70.83%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 54,311 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.58%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
54,311
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
5m 24
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 69.10% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 34 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-02 17:33:00 → 2026-10-02 23:33:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 18,106 evaluated
Forecast Hit 66.16%
Published TouchRate 60.85%
Qualified Hit 81.90%
Published TouchRate 82.95%
60 min 18,103 evaluated
Forecast Hit 70.95%
Published TouchRate 71.07%
Qualified Hit 80.22%
Published TouchRate 84.02%
90 min 18,102 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.37%
Published TouchRate 75.37%
Qualified Hit 82.55%
Published TouchRate 85.52%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1790976527913-405788
2026-10-02 23:28:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,435.7800 → 84,435.8300 93.00% touched 2026-10-02 23:28:00
@ 84,435.7800
1790976348855-404851
2026-10-02 23:25:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,445.3500 → 84,445.4500 95.00% touched 2026-10-02 23:26:00
@ 84,445.4500
1790974909890-389671
2026-10-02 23:01:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,583.4800 → 84,583.5300 66.00% not touched —
1790974728521-388729
2026-10-02 22:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,411.5500 → 84,411.6000 93.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:58:00
@ 84,411.5500
1790974728521-388729
2026-10-02 22:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,451.3500 → 84,451.4500 88.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:58:00
@ 84,451.3500
1790974728521-388729
2026-10-02 22:58:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,506.3500 → 84,506.4700 86.00% touched 2026-10-02 23:01:00
@ 84,506.3500
1790974550810-387822
2026-10-02 22:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,288.2800 → 84,288.3300 67.00% not touched —
1790974550810-387822
2026-10-02 22:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,447.9800 → 84,448.0700 82.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:58:00
@ 84,447.9800
1790974550810-387822
2026-10-02 22:55:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,478.6800 → 84,478.8100 85.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:59:00
@ 84,478.6800
1790974369295-386918
2026-10-02 22:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,487.4400 → 84,487.4900 76.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:59:00
@ 84,487.4400
1790974189659-386015
2026-10-02 22:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,325.6600 → 84,325.7100 92.00% not touched —
1790974189659-386015
2026-10-02 22:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,423.8800 → 84,423.9800 83.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:51:00
@ 84,423.8800
1790974189659-386015
2026-10-02 22:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,471.4200 → 84,471.5500 84.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:59:00
@ 84,471.4200
1790974008891-385105
2026-10-02 22:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,166.3600 → 84,166.4100 70.00% not touched —
1790974008891-385105
2026-10-02 22:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,270.5600 → 84,270.6500 93.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:46:00
@ 84,270.5600
1790974008891-385105
2026-10-02 22:46:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 84,352.9300 → 84,353.0600 85.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:46:00
@ 84,352.9300
1790973830165-384203
2026-10-02 22:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 84,163.9100 → 84,170.6100 64.00% not touched —
1790973830165-384203
2026-10-02 22:43:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 84,304.6900 → 84,304.7900 89.00% touched 2026-10-02 22:46:00
@ 84,304.6900

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 4,136 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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