Publicly inspectable performance

Verified Quantalis Forecast Performance

Inspect how published Quantalis forecast ranges performed against stored market data. Select a market and period to review verified hit rates, forecast horizons, real market replay and completed forecast outcomes.

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Enter the Quantalis forecast run ID to inspect that exact prediction, all published horizons and its market outcome.
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Statistics period: ALL TIME Last calculated: 24 Oct 2026, 19:30 Qualified threshold: 70%
24H 7D ALL TIME
Single Forecast Analysis

Forecast Run 1792772209887-2153935

Detailed inspection of the exact prediction recorded by Quantalis and its later market-verified outcome. Historical context below uses only forecasts published before this run.

Permanent view
Forecast ID 1792772209887-2153935
Published 2026-10-23 18:16:35
Market Coinbase · BTC/USD
Source price 81,536.2700
Run Hit Rate
100.00%
3 touched of 3 completed horizons.
Published TouchRate
67.00%
Average model estimate across this run's published horizons.
First Verified Touch
2026-10-23 18:21:00
Market price 81,474.7600.
Actual Market Range
81,376.5800 → 81,750.0000
Market low/high across the run's full published validity window.

Published horizons and verified outcomes

Every range stored under forecast run 1792772209887-2153935.

Horizon Published range TouchRate Valid interval Result Verified touch
30 min 81,632.4000 → 81,633.3800 54.00% 2026-10-23 18:16:35
→ 2026-10-23 18:46:35 		touched 2026-10-23 18:34:00
@ 81,632.4000
60 min 81,619.5600 → 81,619.6600 64.00% 2026-10-23 18:16:35
→ 2026-10-23 19:16:35 		touched 2026-10-23 18:34:00
@ 81,619.5600
90 min 81,474.6300 → 81,474.7600 83.00% 2026-10-23 18:16:35
→ 2026-10-23 19:46:35 		touched 2026-10-23 18:21:00
@ 81,474.7600
Historical context at publication time 71.54% same-market verified hit rate before this run
Prior evaluated ranges 83,493 only completed observations published earlier
Prior published TouchRate 68.74% model expectation before this run
Historical context is intentionally cut off at 2026-10-23 18:16:35 so future forecast outcomes cannot improve the statistics shown as having been known when this prediction was published.

Verified performance overview

The four headline metrics below use completed market outcomes for the selected market and period.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate
71.54%
Actual market reached the published forecast zone in 84,964 evaluated ranges.
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
81.58%
Verified performance for forecasts meeting the current 70% qualification threshold.
Evaluated Ranges
84,964
Completed touched + not touched observations. Pending ranges are excluded.
Median Time to Touch
4m 52
Median time from range validity to the first verified market touch.
Verified Hit Rate is calculated after the market outcome is known.
Published TouchRate: 68.71% is the model estimate stored with the original forecast; it is not used as a substitute for the verified result.
Pending: 41 open ranges are excluded until their forecast horizon ends.

Market Replay: forecast vs. actual market

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

Coinbase · BTC/USD

2026-10-24 13:29:00 → 2026-10-24 19:29:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Performance by 30 / 60 / 90 minute horizon

Verified hit rates are shown together with the corresponding model-published TouchRate for each prediction horizon.

30 min 28,329 evaluated
Forecast Hit 67.77%
Published TouchRate 60.32%
Qualified Hit 82.65%
Published TouchRate 83.00%
60 min 28,323 evaluated
Forecast Hit 71.55%
Published TouchRate 70.60%
Qualified Hit 80.44%
Published TouchRate 83.96%
90 min 28,312 evaluated
Forecast Hit 75.31%
Published TouchRate 75.20%
Qualified Hit 81.93%
Published TouchRate 85.49%

14-day verified performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
1792862570476-2547860
2026-10-24 19:22:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,122.2800 → 80,122.3300 93.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:22:00
@ 80,122.2800
1792862210674-2546327
2026-10-24 19:16:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,133.4800 → 80,133.5400 62.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:21:00
@ 80,133.4800
1792862030990-2545529
2026-10-24 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,109.9800 → 80,110.0200 62.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:17:00
@ 80,109.9800
1792862030990-2545529
2026-10-24 19:13:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,118.0800 → 80,118.1800 78.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:17:00
@ 80,118.0800
1792861850168-2544749
2026-10-24 19:10:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,135.9800 → 80,136.0200 62.00% touched 2026-10-24 19:23:00
@ 80,135.9800
1792860950841-2540824
2026-10-24 18:55:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,207.2900 → 80,207.3300 59.00% not touched —
1792860771782-2540045
2026-10-24 18:52:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 80,185.8800 → 80,185.9200 59.00% not touched —
1792860590133-2539268
2026-10-24 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 79,986.0200 → 79,986.0800 58.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 79,986.0200
1792860590133-2539268
2026-10-24 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 80,023.0000 → 80,023.1000 72.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 80,023.0000
1792860590133-2539268
2026-10-24 18:49:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,132.5700 → 80,132.7000 71.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 80,132.5700
1792860413271-2538498
2026-10-24 18:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 79,834.2800 → 79,834.3300 88.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:49:00
@ 79,834.2800
1792860413271-2538498
2026-10-24 18:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 79,951.9400 → 79,952.0400 72.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:49:00
@ 79,951.9400
1792860413271-2538498
2026-10-24 18:46:36 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 80,044.0900 → 80,044.2100 73.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:50:00
@ 80,044.0900
1792860231698-2537718
2026-10-24 18:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 79,730.9900 → 79,731.0400 93.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:43:00
@ 79,731.0400
1792860231698-2537718
2026-10-24 18:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 79,895.6200 → 79,895.7200 72.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:49:00
@ 79,895.6200
1792860231698-2537718
2026-10-24 18:43:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		90 min 79,795.9900 → 79,796.1200 94.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:46:00
@ 79,795.9900
1792860050878-2536941
2026-10-24 18:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		30 min 79,677.7100 → 79,683.0300 50.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:40:00
@ 79,680.3700
1792860050878-2536941
2026-10-24 18:40:35 		Coinbase
BTC 		60 min 79,827.3200 → 79,827.4200 72.00% touched 2026-10-24 18:49:00
@ 79,827.3200

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Data completeness notice: A collection interruption was detected for the selected market in this statistics period (largest observed gap between consecutive forecast runs: 4,136 minutes). Performance statistics are calculated from the records that were successfully collected and verified, so results for the affected interval may not represent the complete forecast stream.
Remark: Forecast outcomes are automatically verified by the Quantalis system by comparing published forecast ranges with stored market data. This is an internal system verification and does not represent independent third-party verification.
Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.
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