Verified market performance

Performance you can inspect, not just a number you have to trust.

Quantalis compares published forecast ranges with stored market candles. This public view shows verified results, qualified performance, forecast horizons and direct forecast-to-market comparisons.

Statistics period: 24H Last calculated: 15 Aug 2026, 00:30 Qualified threshold: 70%

Verified performance overview

Only ranges that have a completed market outcome are included in verified hit-rate calculations.

Forecast Hit Rate
52.27%
1,364 evaluated forecast ranges
Qualified Forecast Hit Rate
70.96%
613 qualified evaluated ranges
Published TouchRate
63.55%
Average model-published confidence/touch estimate
Median Time to Touch
16m 28
Median time from range validity to first verified touch
Evaluated Ranges
1,364
Completed touched + not touched observations
Pending
4
Open ranges are excluded until their horizon expires

Performance by forecast horizon

Forecast Hit Rate, Qualified Forecast Hit Rate and the model-published TouchRate shown side by side for each prediction horizon.

30 min 456 evaluated
Forecast Hit 37.72%
Qualified Hit 60.47%
Published TouchRate 52.84%
60 min 456 evaluated
Forecast Hit 49.34%
Qualified Hit 67.28%
Published TouchRate 65.43%
90 min 452 evaluated
Forecast Hit 69.91%
Qualified Hit 79.03%
Published TouchRate 72.45%

Recent performance trend

Daily verified performance reconstructed from completed forecast ranges for the latest 14 days available.

Forecast Hit Rate Qualified Forecast Hit Rate Published TouchRate
Qualified = published TouchRate ≥ 70%. Invalid, cancelled and pending outcomes are excluded.

Forecast-to-market verification

Forecast ranges and actual stored market candles on the same time axis. This makes individual outcomes visually inspectable.

OKX BTC/USD

2026-08-14 18:29:00 → 2026-08-15 00:29:00 · 1 min candles

Actual market High / Low + Close 30 min forecast 60 min forecast 90 min forecast
Forecast zone = range_low → range_high during its published validity horizon. Market = stored High / Low + Close candles used by the validator.

Recent evaluated forecasts

A compact audit view of recently completed forecast ranges and their recorded result.

Forecast Market Horizon Forecast range Published TouchRate Result Verified touch
#3064
2026-08-14 23:20:52
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,755.7400 → 62,755.9400 36.00% not touched
#3064
2026-08-14 23:20:52
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,774.5400 → 62,774.6300 78.00% not touched
#3063
2026-08-14 23:17:52
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,699.7800 → 62,699.9800 21.00% not touched
#3063
2026-08-14 23:17:52
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,699.7300 → 62,699.8300 53.00% not touched
#3062
2026-08-14 23:14:51
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,773.7200 → 62,773.9200 54.00% not touched
#3062
2026-08-14 23:14:51
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,769.8800 → 62,769.9800 73.00% not touched
#3061
2026-08-14 23:11:51
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,763.2200 → 62,763.4200 39.00% not touched
#3061
2026-08-14 23:11:51
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,760.0100 → 62,760.1100 64.00% not touched
#3060
2026-08-14 23:08:51
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,891.6400 → 62,891.8400 85.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:19:00
@ 62,891.6400
#3060
2026-08-14 23:08:51
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,886.1800 → 62,886.2700 96.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:33:00
@ 62,886.1800
#3060
2026-08-14 23:08:51
OKX
BTC
90 min 62,880.9400 → 62,881.0600 50.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:33:00
@ 62,881.0000
#3059
2026-08-14 23:05:50
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,960.8600 → 62,961.0600 45.00% not touched
#3059
2026-08-14 23:05:50
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,932.2000 → 62,932.2900 89.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:05:00
@ 62,932.2000
#3059
2026-08-14 23:05:50
OKX
BTC
90 min 62,930.2200 → 62,930.3500 94.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:05:00
@ 62,930.2200
#3058
2026-08-14 23:02:50
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,976.6000 → 62,976.8000 43.00% not touched
#3058
2026-08-14 23:02:50
OKX
BTC
60 min 62,964.1000 → 62,964.2000 76.00% not touched
#3058
2026-08-14 23:02:50
OKX
BTC
90 min 62,936.7700 → 62,936.8900 98.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:04:00
@ 62,936.7700
#3057
2026-08-14 22:59:50
OKX
BTC
30 min 62,924.2200 → 62,924.4200 71.00% touched 2026-08-14 23:00:00
@ 62,924.2200

How these statistics are calculated

Public performance numbers should be understandable as well as visible.

Verified Forecast Hit Rate

Each forecast range has a defined validity interval. Stored market candles are checked against that range. A range is marked touched when the actual market reaches the published forecast zone during its valid horizon.

Hit Rate uses only completed touched + not touched observations. Pending, invalid and cancelled records do not count toward the denominator.

Qualified Forecast Hit Rate

Qualified statistics apply the same market verification, but only to forecasts that pass the current qualification rule.

The current rule displayed on this page is a published TouchRate threshold of 70% or higher. This threshold can evolve as the qualification model is refined.

Published TouchRate

Published TouchRate is the estimate included with the original model output. It is shown alongside the later verified result so visitors can compare model expectation with observed performance.

It is not substituted for the verified market result.

Market verification data

The verification chart uses the same stored market candles used by the validation process. Forecast zones and real High / Low / Close price movement are plotted on the same time axis.

Statistics are calculated periodically. The exact calculation time is displayed at the top of the page.

Important: These statistics describe historical analytical outputs and their subsequent comparison with market data. They do not guarantee future performance and do not constitute investment advice, recommendation or financial guidance.